TRACEQUANTAI

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

July current conditions -77.6 vs -77.8 expected Prior -81.0 July outlook 26.3 vs 17.5 expected Prior 10.5 Even with a slight rebound, current conditions remain subdued and that is reflective of the dampened economic mood as a result of the Middle East conflict. As tensions escalate once again, that is just making for a tough time for German firms. The good news at least is that the outlook is seen picking up going into July. ZEW notes that: "The economic outlook continues to improve in July. It

Impact score: 59
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 2 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 100/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (EURUSD)

Full report here The ECB's Bank Lending Survey showed that euro area banks continued to tighten lending standards in the second quarter, reflecting heightened concerns over the economic outlook, geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks. Banks reported a moderate tightening of credit standards for corporate loans (net 7%), as well as for housing loans (9%) and consumer credit (12%). The main drivers were weaker risk tolerance and higher perceived credit risks. Banks expect lending standar

Impact score: 52
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 3 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain above 50% (currently 61%). The US-Iran crisis in the background is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside, so the downside in the greenback should remain limited without a

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

I guess that is how quickly things can unravel in Westminster. From earlier: UK prime minister Burnham announces VAT cut from energy bills to bring down cost of living As mentioned in the announcement earlier, the policy cost of cutting VAT from energy bills would be around £850 million. And it was reported that it will be funded through the now cancelled digital ID scheme, which was estimated to cost approximately £1.8 billion over the coming years. However, UK lawmaker Darren Jones is now out

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

As a reminder, the Strait of Hormuz has reverted back to a de facto closure as the US and Iran are engaging in military strikes once again. And with that, the US has also reimposed their naval blockade at the other end of the strait. As such, both sides have pretty much hit the reset button to the ceasefire deal/memorandum of understanding. For the time being, the latest shiptracking data shows that traffic along the strait has gone back all the way down. And by that, I mean to the lowest point

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data was mostly in line with expectations although a bit on the soft side in terms of wage growth, which is a welcome news for the BoE. Overall, the data didn't change anything for monetary policy expectations, so the market reaction was limited.  Looking ahead, we will get the German ZEW economic sentiment index which is expected at 15.3 vs 10.5 prior. The data won't change anything for the ECB which

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1450 levels. That fits with the more rangebound play in the currency pair for the past few weeks, with the expiries once again set to define the boundaries for price action in the session ahead. The only notable technical points are the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, and they are resting at the region of 1.1428-37 currently. So, EUR/USD traders are als

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

May ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected Prior 4.9% May employment change 147k vs 80k expected Prior 100k May average weekly earnings +4.3% vs +4.5% 3m/y expected Prior +4.4% May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected Prior +3.4% June payrolls change -4k Prior 2k; revised to 3k As a reminder, the numbers here are still based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with that having data quality issues as the survey transition is delayed. And that remains the number one c

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Burnham a man with a plan? Or is this just a move to try and bolster popularity early on in his tenure? In his first notable policy action in charge, he has scrapped VAT on energy bills starting from 1 October. The move will cost roughly £850 million and be funded through the now cancelled digital ID scheme. For some context, the previously proposed digital ID scheme was estimated to cost approximately £1.8 billion over the coming years. "I said I wanted to give people breathing space, and that'