TRACEQUANTAI

Impact score: 27
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 45/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

German ZEW survey shows pick up in recovery mood in July Eurozone banks tighten lending standards further as geopolitical risks weigh on credit conditions Trouble already for Burnham in his first policy announcement? Iran says any decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz depends on security considerations FX option expiries for 21 July 10am New York cut UK unemployment rate holds steady in May, payrolls decline again in June UK prime minister Burnham announces VAT cut from energy bills to bring d

Impact score: 49
- Source credibility: 85 (MarketWatch Top Stories)
- Velocity: 2 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 75/100 (XAUUSD)

For the last few years, China’s buying patterns have been an excellent investment signal on gold

Impact score: 47
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 1 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain above 50% (currently 61%). The US-Iran crisis in the background is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside, so the downside in the greenback should remain limited without a

Impact score: 50
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 2 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   The S&P 500 has been mostly rangebound this month as the US-Iran crisis brought back inflation and growth risks. This has also happened amid overcrowded stock market positioning which has led to deleveraging across the board. Last week’s soft US inflation data helped limiting the downside as the peak inflation narrative got stronger and we got a dovish repricing in Fed interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the situation i

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

July current conditions -77.6 vs -77.8 expected Prior -81.0 July outlook 26.3 vs 17.5 expected Prior 10.5 Even with a slight rebound, current conditions remain subdued and that is reflective of the dampened economic mood as a result of the Middle East conflict. As tensions escalate once again, that is just making for a tough time for German firms. The good news at least is that the outlook is seen picking up going into July. ZEW notes that: "The economic outlook continues to improve in July. It

Impact score: 59
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 2 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 100/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (EURUSD)

Full report here The ECB's Bank Lending Survey showed that euro area banks continued to tighten lending standards in the second quarter, reflecting heightened concerns over the economic outlook, geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks. Banks reported a moderate tightening of credit standards for corporate loans (net 7%), as well as for housing loans (9%) and consumer credit (12%). The main drivers were weaker risk tolerance and higher perceived credit risks. Banks expect lending standar

Impact score: 52
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 3 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW   USD: The US dollar has been under some pressure since last week as the soft US inflation data led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations. There’s now just a 15% chance of a rate hike in July, but the probabilities for a September move remain above 50% (currently 61%). The US-Iran crisis in the background is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside, so the downside in the greenback should remain limited without a

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

I guess that is how quickly things can unravel in Westminster. From earlier: UK prime minister Burnham announces VAT cut from energy bills to bring down cost of living As mentioned in the announcement earlier, the policy cost of cutting VAT from energy bills would be around £850 million. And it was reported that it will be funded through the now cancelled digital ID scheme, which was estimated to cost approximately £1.8 billion over the coming years. However, UK lawmaker Darren Jones is now out

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

As a reminder, the Strait of Hormuz has reverted back to a de facto closure as the US and Iran are engaging in military strikes once again. And with that, the US has also reimposed their naval blockade at the other end of the strait. As such, both sides have pretty much hit the reset button to the ceasefire deal/memorandum of understanding. For the time being, the latest shiptracking data shows that traffic along the strait has gone back all the way down. And by that, I mean to the lowest point

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data was mostly in line with expectations although a bit on the soft side in terms of wage growth, which is a welcome news for the BoE. Overall, the data didn't change anything for monetary policy expectations, so the market reaction was limited.  Looking ahead, we will get the German ZEW economic sentiment index which is expected at 15.3 vs 10.5 prior. The data won't change anything for the ECB which

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1450 levels. That fits with the more rangebound play in the currency pair for the past few weeks, with the expiries once again set to define the boundaries for price action in the session ahead. The only notable technical points are the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, and they are resting at the region of 1.1428-37 currently. So, EUR/USD traders are als

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

May ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected Prior 4.9% May employment change 147k vs 80k expected Prior 100k May average weekly earnings +4.3% vs +4.5% 3m/y expected Prior +4.4% May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected Prior +3.4% June payrolls change -4k Prior 2k; revised to 3k As a reminder, the numbers here are still based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with that having data quality issues as the survey transition is delayed. And that remains the number one c

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Burnham a man with a plan? Or is this just a move to try and bolster popularity early on in his tenure? In his first notable policy action in charge, he has scrapped VAT on energy bills starting from 1 October. The move will cost roughly £850 million and be funded through the now cancelled digital ID scheme. For some context, the previously proposed digital ID scheme was estimated to cost approximately £1.8 billion over the coming years. "I said I wanted to give people breathing space, and that'

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Rising oil prices and Treasury yields are still two key factors that should continue to drive markets in the week ahead. And both are very much driven themselves by US-Iran developments at the moment. Tensions remain high as US president Trump claims that Iran will pay "many times over" for the killing of American soldiers. That as both sides continue to exchange military strikes in the meantime too. However, there was a bit of hope perhaps late yesterday with Axios stating that Trump is mulling

Impact score: 24
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 30/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Goldman Sachs says renewed escalation risks in Middle East imply net upside risks to their $80/75 Brent/WTI 2026 Q4 forecast.Brent might rise above $120/bbl in 2026 Q4, and average $100/bbl in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted. Goldman’s baseline: Brent at $80/bbl in Q4 and $75/bbl next year. - Note via Reuters  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Impact score: 60
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 5 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

RBNZ's own inflation model, Q2 2026: 2.7% y/y, unchanged from Q1 Israel believes Iran moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain Goldman Sachs says Brent might rise above $120/bbl if Hormuz remains disrupted South Korea's Lee flags won weakness and leveraged product risks Axios reports that Trump nears decision between new Iran ceasefire and full scale war Oil holds near one month highs as renewed US Iran conflict enters 10th night PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7917 (vs. estimate at

Impact score: 60
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 6 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Unchanged from Q1 takes some pressure out of the inflaiton readings today.  More detail: RBNZ's sectoral factor model, its preferred underlying inflation measure. Earlier: New Zealand's Q2 CPI rose 4.1% y/y and 1.5% q/q, both above forecasts and the RBNZ's own 3.9% estimate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Impact score: 18
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

A confirmed US strike on a hardened, deeply buried nuclear site would mark a significant escalation beyond the strikes on shipping and conventional military targets seen so far, and would likely be read by markets as raising the risk of a broader, more prolonged conflict rather than a step toward de-escalation. Given Pickaxe Mountain's depth and fortification, any attack would also raise questions about the effectiveness of strikes against it, potentially prolonging uncertainty rather than resol

Impact score: 60
- Source credibility: 70 (investingLive (ForexLive))
- Velocity: 6 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

New Zealand's Q2 CPI rose 4.1% y/y and 1.5% q/q, both above forecasts and the RBNZ's own 3.9% estimate. Its sent the kiwi $ higher on the session.  Still to come is the RBNZ's sectoral factor model, its preferred underlying inflation measure. Due at 3pm New Zealand time today, which is 3am GMT and 11pm US Eastern time on Monday. This will markets a further read on the extent of underlying price pressure. The model is the RBNZ's own preferred measure of core inflation, built by extracting a commo

Impact score: 52
- Source credibility: 75 (Cointelegraph)
- Velocity: 3 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 75/100 (XAUUSD)

The recognition allows regulated firms in Abu Dhabi Global Market to offer services involving Tether Gold as tokenized commodities gain broader adoption.

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has imposed a financial penalty of £4,165,000 on HDI Global SE in connection with the submission of incorrect data to the PRA.

Impact score: 55
- Source credibility: 65 (U.Today)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

As miners chase AI profits, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reveals why global inflation fears and rising deficits will keep driving Bitcoin’s price higher.

Impact score: 20
- Source credibility: 80 (CoinDesk)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (USDJPY)

The Japanese logistics firm plans to pay 2,300 partners, including truck drivers, using JPYC in Japan’s first large-scale corporate stablecoin rollout.

Impact score: 50
- Source credibility: 75 (Decrypt)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 75/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (EURUSD)

ECB board member Piero Cipollone laid out the three-layer threat banks face from digital payments, and pitched the digital euro as the only structural answer.

Impact score: 46
- Source credibility: 50 (TheCryptoUpdates)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 30/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Ether is beating Bitcoin this week by a wide margin, and the reason seems tied to a very specific type of money coming in through exchange-traded funds. The softer inflation data from Tuesday helped the broader market, but Ether climbed on its own steam, too. Ether traded around $1,920 on... The post Ether surfs 11% weekly gain on BlackRock-led ETF flows appeared first on TheCryptoUpdates.

Impact score: 35
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Agencies issue joint statement on handling of highly sensitive information during bank examinations

Impact score: 52
- Source credibility: 75 (Decrypt)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 30/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

The post-CPI rally gave XRP a nudge. The coin barely moved. Now the chart is filling in the picture.

Impact score: 38
- Source credibility: 75 (The Defiant)
- Velocity: 1 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (USDJPY)

The deal routes distribution through SBI's ecosystem and settles in the group's JPYSC yen stablecoin, connecting Japan's capital markets to onchain finance.

Impact score: 62
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former chief lending officer of Heritage State Bank

Impact score: 41
- Source credibility: 55 (CryptoDaily)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

June CPI cooldown cut headline inflation to 3.5% as CME BTC basis slipped below 4% and open interest hit cycle lows. Post-CPI signals lighter leverage.

Impact score: 53
- Source credibility: 55 (CryptoDaily)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: 100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Probably on the back of the benevolent US CPI figures that were released on Tuesday, the Bitcoin price had a good day, rising 4.5%. Can the rally continue and make that all-important higher high, or is $BTC getting close to a roll-over that will take it lower again?

Impact score: 23
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on June 8 and June 17, 2026

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Innovative new proposals aim to establish the UK as a centre for the fast-growing captive insurance market.

Impact score: 39
- Source credibility: 55 (CryptoDaily)
- Velocity: 1 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 30/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (USDJPY)

JPY 46.7B Bitbank deal, EDX Markets' $76M round, and Japan’s first trust-bank yen stablecoin show SBI building rails for institutions. What changes next.

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

The Money Markets Committee is a forum for market participants and authorities to discuss the UK unsecured deposits and funding market and securities lending and repo markets.

Impact score: 33
- Source credibility: 55 (CryptoDaily)
- Velocity: 1 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 55/100 (USDJPY)

Lawson’s August JPYC pilot at Takanawa Gateway City tests barcode payments via HashPort Wallet with KDDI. Retailers weigh fees, UX, and scale risks.

Impact score: 44
- Source credibility: 55 (CryptoDaily)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 15/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

July 14 CPI release lands as the Fed drops an easing bias and tech leads a 6% S&P 500 run. Soft inflation still must beat guidance risk from the Fed and earnings.

Impact score: 27
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 30/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

The Bank of England, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority will start overseeing the first Critical Third Parties on Monday 13 July 2026, following designation by HM Treasury.

Impact score: 50
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Federal Reserve announces the leadership and objectives of its task forces to advance the conduct of monetary policy

Impact score: 70
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 100/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with TS Banking Group, Inc. and TS Contrarian Bancshares, Inc.

Impact score: 23
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

The Money Markets Committee is a forum for market participants and authorities to discuss the UK unsecured deposits and funding market and securities lending and repo markets.

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Letter from the Governor

Impact score: 33
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder

Impact score: 62
- Source credibility: 90 (Federal Reserve)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 60/100
- Sentiment direction: -100 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100
- Asset importance: 90/100 (DXY)

Federal Reserve Board requests comment on a proposal to amend its requirements for banks to maintain anti-money laundering programs

Impact score: 21
- Source credibility: 85 (Bank of England)
- Velocity: 0 related signal(s) in the last 60 min
- Sentiment intensity: 0/100
- Sentiment direction: 0 (-100 bearish .. 100 bullish)
- Sentiment confidence: n/a/100

Our Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meets to identify risks to financial stability and agree policy actions aimed at safeguarding the resilience of the UK financial system.